Insights

Seasonal: Bullish. December is the second month of the Best 6 & 8 months. Also, the second month of the best consecutive three-month span, November to January. December is the third best month of the year for the DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ, and second best for Russell 2000. In presidential election years, December is #2 for the DOW and S&P 500, #5 NASDAQ, and the best Russell 2000 month of the year. Fundamental: Improving?...

Seasonal: Bullish. November is the first month of the Best 6 & 8 Months, and the first month of the best consecutive three-month span, November to January. November is also the best S&P 500 month of the year since 1950, second best for the DOW and NASDAQ (since 1971). In election years, November maintains its top month status. Fundamental: Landing Softly. Yesterday’s Q3 (advance estimate) of GDP was 2.8%. This is a modest slowing from...

Seasonal: Bearish. October is the worst month in election years ranking last for the DOW, S&P 500, and NASDAQ. It is the second worst month for Russell 2000. Fundamental: Softish Landing. The third estimate of Q2 GDP was in line with expectations at 3% and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is forecasting 2.9% in Q3 as of its September 18, update. Inflation metrics continue to trend lower but are still above the Fed’s stated 2%...

Seasonal: Bearish. September is the worst month of the year for the DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000. In election years, September’s overall rank improves slightly to third worst month for the DOW, S&P 500, and NASDAQ, fourth worst for Russell 2000. Except for Russell 2000, average performance in election years remains negative. Fundamental: Adequate. Inflation is slowly cooling, but still above the Fed’s stated 2% target. Unemployment is creeping higher and is currently...

Cryptocurrency has challenged traditional notions of currency and value, with its decentralized structure and potential for borderless transactions. The allure of investing in it is undeniable but can also be nerve-wrackingly volatile. While directly owning cryptocurrency comes with inherent price swings, there are ways to gain exposure to the crypto market with less volatility. One approach is crypto mining, where miners carefully choose which coins to mine and optimize their operations for efficiency. By becoming...

Seasonal: Neutral. August is the worst month for the DOW and second worst for the S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000, and Russell 2000 over the last 36 years, from 1988-2023, but in election years August has been stronger. Fundamental: Soft. The recently released advance estimate of Q2 GDP did accelerate to 2.8% with a pickup in consumer spending and inventories, but also a downturn in residential investment. Inflation is slowly cooling but is still stubbornly...

Artificial intelligence is transforming traditional tax planning by refining strategies and enhancing efficiency to address complex needs. Is your financial advisory team lagging behind? Do you feel like you’re doing more work than the professionals helping you are? Here’s how to determine if your financial advisor is utilizing the technological wave—the AI productivity boom. Tax planning isn’t exciting, but it is critical in effectively maximizing after-tax wealth. Asking the right questions can help you determine...

Seasonal: Neutral. July is the #1 S&P 500 and NASDAQ month over the last 21 years, but July is also the first month of NASDAQ’s “Worst Months” and election year performance has been softer. Election-year Julys rank #6 for the DOW and S&P 500, #9 for NASDAQ, and #10 for Russell 2000. Fundamental: Softening. The third estimate of Q1 GDP was revised higher to 1.4%, but the improvement came with a downward revision to consumer...

Investment strategies have oscillated between active and passive methodologies for years, each offering unique benefits. A growing consensus is recognizing the potential of combining both for a well-rounded portfolio. Merging active and passive strategies empowers advisors to build customized portfolios that balance cost-efficiency with client goals and unique circumstances. Active investing involves actively picking and trading stocks, bonds, and other investments with the goal of beating the market’s return. This requires significant research and analysis,...

As investment strategies shift, family offices and private equity firms are turning towards promising growth sectors, led by the homebuilding industry and its adjacent businesses. Such strategic reallocations of capital reflect a broader investment theory, one that sees not only the houses as assets but also the burgeoning ecosystems they foster. Influential investors, taking cues from Warren Buffett’s proven approach, are keenly aware of the prospects within the homebuilding sector. It’s a segment that’s attracting...

By Paul Padovani  ​​​The 60/40 portfolio has been a cornerstone of investment strategy for decades. As the financial landscape evolves, advisors are rethinking this once-reliable model. While it delivered strong results in the 80s and 90s, concerns about its ability to deliver optimal returns in today’s environment are prompting a reevaluation of investment strategies.​​  ​​​T​he onset of bear markets ​starting ​in 2000, combined with persistently ​low interest ​rates, has diminished the appeal of this traditional...

By Paul Padovani A recent analysis of SEC data spotlighting significant reallocation of funds, Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) are shifting their preference to private equity over hedge funds. The analysis, which examined Form ADV filings from RIAs that offer financial planning and advise on private funds, paints a compelling picture of the changing investment preferences over the last nine years. Notably, RIAs have significantly increased their allocation to private equity, nearly doubling it. Private funds,...